This family of AIS Risk Vectors provide an overall view of general risk conditions through a weighted average of key specific risk vectors and gauge overall market risk status.

• AIS Aggregate Market Risk Index. Focus: Overall market risk condition

This family of AIS Credit-Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the cost of funding short-term assets is likely to rise. These vectors provide an early look at the availability of credit and short-term funding. This is applicable to assets that are sensitive to the cost of short-term funding. Potential applications include equity long/short, high yield and investment grade credit, global macro trading, risk arb, capital structure arb and tail hedging.

• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Short Term Credit/Funding. Focus: Overall condition of the availability of short-term credit.
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Early Warning Indicator (Short Term Credit/Funding). Focus: Early warning that credit conditions have begun to change.
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Early Warning Confirmation (Short Term Credit/Funding). Focus: Confirming warning that credit conditions have begun to change.

This family of credit-Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the cost of long term debt financing is likely to rise. These vectors provide an early look at the availability of corporate credit and long-term funding. This is applicable to assets that require long-term financing. Potential applications include equity long/short, high yield, investment grade credit, global macro trading, risk arb, capital structure arb and tail hedging.

• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Corp Credit/Funding. Focus: Overall condition of the availability of long-term credit.
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Early Warning Indicator (Corp Credit/Funding). Focus: Early warning that credit conditions have begun to change.
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Early Warning Confirmation (Corp Credit/Funding). Focus: Confirming warning that credit conditions have begun to change.

This family of Interest Rate-Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the outlook for short-term interest rates is becoming uncertain. These vectors provide an early look at the stability of interest rates and the expectations for future rates. Potential applications include equities, high yield and investment grade credit, global macro tradition, risk arb and capital structure arb.

• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Interest Rate Stability / Expectations
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Interest Rate Stability / Expectations (Velocity 1)
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Interest Rate Stability / Expectations (Velocity 2)
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Interest Rate Stability / Expectations (Velocity 3)

Focus: Useful for assets that are sensitive to short term interest rates.

This family of Global Macro- Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the cost of long term debt financing is in flux. These vectors provide an early look at the stability of economic growth and the expectations for future GDP growth. Potential applications include equities, high yield and investment grade credit, global macro trading, risk arb, capital structure arb and are especially useful for small cap equities.

• AIS Predictive Global Macro Risk Index - Currencies
• AIS Predictive Global Macro Risk Index - Velocity of Change (Early Indicator)
• AIS Predictive Global Macro Risk Index - Velocity of Change (Confirmation)

This family of Interest Rate- Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the macro environment is likely to change the relative performance of stocks vs bonds, large caps vs small caps, and other asset allocation functions. These vectors provide an early look at the stability of economic growth and inflation assumptions.

• AIS Predictive Economic Growth Risk Index - Asset Allocation Guide
• AIS Predictive Economic Growth Risk Index - Early Indicator
• AIS Predictive Economic Growth Risk Index - Early Indicator (Confirmation)

Focus: This family of risk vectors is particularly useful as an input to asset allocation. When this family moves quickly then it is often a sign of a significant shift in the economic outlook overall.

This family of Equity-Related Risk Vectors provides early warnings when the economic forecast has shifted to include the potential for a serious economic crisis. This tends to be a very early indicator. These vectors provide an early look at the stability of the volatility levels, independent of other popular equity option-related volatility indices. Potential uses include all risk assets, especially equities and equity options.

• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Volatility Indicator (Magnitude of Change)
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Volatility Early Indicator (AIS-Skew)
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Volatility Early Indicator (AIS-Convexity)
• AIS Predictive Risk Index - Volatility Early Indicator (AIS-Term Structure)

Focus: The sub-components of AIS-Skew, AIS-Convexity and AIS-Term Structure provide useful information about anomalies in market positioning. AIS’ proprietary view of each of these three risk vectors is popular with clients.

This calculator, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, is representative of the quantitative (a) trading strategies of risk parity strategies and (b) volatility control overlay algorithms as used in market-moving insurance products and generates a forecast for the incremental dollar volume of S&P 500® index futures that will be either bought or sold the next trading day derived from these algorithms. This calculator can be used in conjunction with the Index Volatility Spike Calculator.

A series of quantitative equity indicators periodically converge and intersect signaling that a volatility spike is imminent. This calculator, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, generates trade signals as the event is manifesting itself in the market. When present, this creates opportunities to sell short, or to buy puts, with a higher than average probability of generating a positive return.

This AIS calculator is a tool, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, which identifies specific stocks that are candidates for selling short (or to sell long) at any given point in time. The focus is to identify attractive entry points for short-term tactical shorts.

State and Municipal bond spreads are very tight to Treasuries due to the tax benefit they afford certain investors. However, certain state and municipal pensions funds and OPEB (Other Post-Employment Benefits) are poorly funded and are becoming an increasingly important component of state and municipal budgets. In periods of stress, the spreads of such state and muni debt will reflect such risks. The AIS Muni Bond Stress Forecasting Calculator, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, seeks to anticipate when specific States and Municipalities’ bonds are likely to come under pressure as spreads widen.

The potential change in the value of a client’s portfolio(s) is calculated with the AIS Live Portfolio Stress Test Calculator utilizing specific user-generated and other global macro assumptions, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, as the key input variables.

Whenever downside risk is indicated by any of AIS’ Predictive Risk Technologies, a Hedge Matrix is prepared for the client that indicates the relative risk/return of various hedging strategies to execute for hedging specific assets or strategies. This calculator would seek to identify the best payoff for the amount of risk taken. The goal is to identify strategies that can generate $3 return for every $1 of capital at risk.

Many estimates of a specific security’s beta are static in design. AIS’ analysis, powered by AIS Predictive Risk Technologies, brings a dynamic approach to the consideration of beta. Further, a security can have a higher or a lower beta under different market conditions. AIS alternative measures of beta that can better reflect how a given security will perform under different market conditions so that the security can be positioned and hedged more effectively.